Can Rodrigo win?

On opening night I had to pick a favourite.

It's a bit like putting a fiver on the Grand National, it's a tradition. Last year I picked Rachel, and whatdoyouknow, she went and won! Even better, I wanted her to! I still think Rodrigo's got a pretty good chance now, but I'm not so sure I want him to. Still, as I will probably be saying a week before the end, it's early days.

This time last year we had already had our Brand New Housemates Friday night. Sara, Maysoon, Belinda Belinda Belinda, remember?

Unless we're heading for a final week with Kris and Sophie sharing the house we'll sooner or later have the injection of new blood that shakes things up - at least for a while.

Anyway, Rodrigo. Last year I got into a bit of a sweat because Rachel barely made the highlights. It wasn't fair! How could she win if they never showed? However, I eventually realised that that actually worked in her favour. Freddie's been the star of the show thus far, and that isn't helping him. You can go off people, especially over thirteen weeks, and when he's not the victim he's a lot less endearing. In conversation with people he really seems to make little concession to their way of talking. Talking about social dynamics with Marcus or Siavash may works. It doesn't with Charlie. Charlie, bless him, is not the sharpest tool in the box.

This, I imagine, is what Kris and Lisa mean when they say he's 'patronising'. Suddenly it becomes crystal clear why people keep nominating him.

And one of those doing the nominating is Rodrigo. The first two weeks he picked Cairon and Siavash. Then, the last two weeks he picked Sree and Fred. His reasons for picking Fred were completely unbelievable: Fred is using the show as a platform for his political career. Well, they're all using it as a platform for something, and that's as good a reason as any.

I think it's safe to say Rod's nominating tactically. He's not the only one, but he can see how the wind is blowing. So he's a gameplayer. The other interesting fact about Rod is that he's quite happy to get into arguments. He's got a long hot and cold feud going with Charlie right now, which is high risk strategy at the best of times. Why does he keep picking fights with someone they all think is going to win?

But he's got a shortish fuse, and if there's any chance of grabbing the high ground he'll take it. We've seen it before, with his bust-up with Noirin on Angel's last night. He's also good at mending fences, and there was no lasting damage from that row, and he might yet clear things up with Charlie.

Most significantly too, Rodrigo has never himself been nominated.

He's playing a good game, Rodrigo. He's getting more airtime too, much of it being handed to him by BB itself. Like the doggie task he had on last night's highlights. That will have helped. To win this show you do have to have a few scrapes along the way. You do have to show that you're one of the good guys, and not just a fence-sitter.

Right now Rodrigo's the third favourite to win, behind Freddie and Siavash. I'd be surprised if he ever drifts out of third place.

Unless of course, we get some very very nice and interesting and attractive new housemates.